Comments on: Green Salt and Iran’s Enrichment Program

By: vimdy

vimdy — Mon, 19 Nov 2007 13:35:15 +0000

I understand that there are a number of problems that might arise from relying on Russia as a supplier, and diversification of finished fuel is not really much of an option because there are so few exporters of enriched fuel. The point is, if it is about the energy, why pursue nuclear and pay several times what the going rate for nuclear generated electricity is? There seems to be some recognition of this in Iran because they did contract with Russia to provide all the fuel they would need for the Bushehr plant, should it ever come on line. Yet whether the indigenous conversion and enrichment capability is an insurance policy or the Iranians plan to shift over to fuel which consists of imported natural uranium that is made into finished fuel domestically (I suspect the former would be the more economically sound path), it translates into a substantial premium they will be paying per kilowatt hour for their electricity generated by nuclear. Iran’s economy has not been doing so stellar that they have money to burn, and I have trouble believing their willingness to pay that premium is out of a concern for the planet and a desire to reduce global warming.

Bush Administration figures have made a statement that, at first, doesn’t seem to make any economic sense. That is [paraphrasing]: ‘If Iran is sitting on a mountain of oil, why does it need to generate nuclear power?’ Of course, with petroleum products being such high value export commodities, it might make sense for an exporting nation to shift its own consumption away from oil to gain more return from the high price of exported petroleum. However, given the excess amount Iran will pay for nuclear under its current fuel acquisition strategy (if the Bushehr plant comes on line), it’s unclear that that they would make any gains by shifting toward nuclear generation to reduce fossil fuel usage.

By: Malu Rellet

Malu Rellet — Sat, 17 Nov 2007 00:48:27 +0000

For a site called Strategic Thinking your question as why Iran wouldn’t want to make itself dependent on Russia — a geographically proximate, and politically volatile, ex-super power neighbor that might want to curry US favor — for its supply of nuclear fuel is remarkably naive.

By: vimdy

vimdy — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 18:41:02 +0000

Of course, this diversity of supply and supply disruption mitigation argument is a potent one for the Iranians. One doesn’t need to think the Russians would engage in blackmail to employ the argument. One need only point to all the potential instabilities facing Russia from demographic crises to political unrest to express concern about it as your only “friendly” supplier.

However, I am not entirely convinced that this argument is good for more than rhetoric because Iran will ultimately be at the mercy of suppliers from other nations for nuclear fuel at some level no matter what. Iran (as of current knowledge) has only limited supplies of low grade uranium ore. The more it isolates itself with its behavior, the more difficult it will be to get shipments of even natural uranium. As it faces not the world market, but a limited set of potential suppliers, it may face exorbitant prices. (Not unlike drug users have to pay a high premium to the few individuals willing to engage in hazardous act of dealing drugs.)

The analogy to the US is apt in that no matter how we try to diversify petroleum supplies, we can’t get away from unfriendly (re: Venezuela) or unstable (re: Nigeria) suppliers, just as Iran will have great expense getting nuclear fuel without dealing with countries to which it does not have the most cordial of relations. I understand North Korea has considerable supplies of uranium ore of a better grade than the Iranian’s, but this is, of course, not exactly a dependable supplier (either because of its own woes or because the embargoes it might face.)

If Iran really wants a diversified energy supply, it should either pursue a route other than nuclear or avoid being an international paraiah.

By: hass

hass — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 17:53:21 +0000

Actually it makes perfect sense for the Iranians to want to make their own nuclear fuel, considering that even Cheney accused the Russians of practicing energy blackmail. Would the US be willing to make its entire nuclear power industry reliant on foreign imports of fuel? Why should Iran? I also recommend the analysis of the IAEA Iran report at IranAffairs.com