Comments on: Iran and the NPT’s Grand Bargain http://vimdy.wordpress.com/2007/12/06/iran-and-the-npts-grand-bargain/ Commentary on Strategy, Technology, Economics, and International Security Mon, 07 Sep 2009 11:43:25 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: vimdy http://vimdy.wordpress.com/2007/12/06/iran-and-the-npts-grand-bargain/#comment-48 vimdy Thu, 06 Dec 2007 22:03:19 +0000 http://vimdy.wordpress.com/2007/12/06/iran-and-the-npts-grand-bargain/#comment-48 While it is true there is no evidence, it does appear that there was intelligence to the effect that the Iranians had a nuclear weapons programs. It is important to differentiate the concepts of "evidence" and "intelligence" because intelligence often cannot, of course, be widely defended on its merits without risk of compromising sources and methods. However, this information was apparently circulated (in part) to the IAEA (and most likely US allies such as Great Britain.) It is true that Iran has recently provided a great deal of information. However, I don't know how close it comes to satisfying the questions posed by the IAEA. While it is true there is no evidence, it does appear that there was intelligence to the effect that the Iranians had a nuclear weapons programs. It is important to differentiate the concepts of “evidence” and “intelligence” because intelligence often cannot, of course, be widely defended on its merits without risk of compromising sources and methods. However, this information was apparently circulated (in part) to the IAEA (and most likely US allies such as Great Britain.)

It is true that Iran has recently provided a great deal of information. However, I don’t know how close it comes to satisfying the questions posed by the IAEA.

]]> By: hass http://vimdy.wordpress.com/2007/12/06/iran-and-the-npts-grand-bargain/#comment-47 hass Thu, 06 Dec 2007 19:41:30 +0000 http://vimdy.wordpress.com/2007/12/06/iran-and-the-npts-grand-bargain/#comment-47 There's no more reason to trust the latest NIE claims about how Iran had a nuclear weapons program in 2003, than to trust the last NIE claim that Iran had an active nuclear weapons program in 2005. There is no evidence of any nuclear weapons program in Iran, not now, not in 2003, not ever. Iran has cleared up practically all of the previously undisclosed activities. Iran tried to cooperate with the IAEA in developing its enrichment program in 1983, until US pressure thwarted the IAEA's technical assistance program as well as Iran's contracts with other countries. It was only then that Iran resorted to secretly obtaining centrifuges from Pakistan. In short, it was the US that forced Iran to go outside its safeguards agreement, and it is the US that is undermining the "Grand Bargain" of the NPT. There is no law of nature that says other countries can't build nukes. It is up to the nuclear-armed states to show - by example - that they will abide by their end of the bargain, both in disarming and in sharing civilian nuclear technology. The US has not done so. There’s no more reason to trust the latest NIE claims about how Iran had a nuclear weapons program in 2003, than to trust the last NIE claim that Iran had an active nuclear weapons program in 2005.

There is no evidence of any nuclear weapons program in Iran, not now, not in 2003, not ever.

Iran has cleared up practically all of the previously undisclosed activities. Iran tried to cooperate with the IAEA in developing its enrichment program in 1983, until US pressure thwarted the IAEA’s technical assistance program as well as Iran’s contracts with other countries. It was only then that Iran resorted to secretly obtaining centrifuges from Pakistan. In short, it was the US that forced Iran to go outside its safeguards agreement, and it is the US that is undermining the “Grand Bargain” of the NPT.

There is no law of nature that says other countries can’t build nukes. It is up to the nuclear-armed states to show – by example – that they will abide by their end of the bargain, both in disarming and in sharing civilian nuclear technology. The US has not done so.

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