The nightmare scenario of our time is that Islamist extremists will gain access to a nuclear weapon, and perhaps the most likely point of acquisition is Pakistan. This assumption is based on the twin observations that the Pakistani government does not seem to be exceptionally stable, and that the country does not suffer any dearth of Islamist extremists. Furthermore, the A.Q. Khan ring, responsible for the greatest proliferation of technologies of nuclear bomb manufacturing ever, was born of a high ranking person in Pakistan’s nuclear program. This is why we should all take interest in the elections that will take place on January 8th, and it is the likely reason why we in America are, in fact, getting more media coverage of the events surrounding the Pakistani elections than those in say South Korea. (This could also have to do with the fact that the drama [states of emergency, bombings, and riots] involved surpasses that seen in most nations.)
While Pakistan might be the most likely place terrorists could acquire an intact nuclear weapon, this does not mean that it is likely. There is a lot to be optimistic about. I looks like elections will go forward, and with only a couple of contenders boycotting. Among the leading opposition candidates there is a lot of talk about respect for rule of law and the virtue of democracy. It does not seem certain that Musharraf has a lock, and there is reason to believe that there might be stable transfer of power. Should this be the case, Pakistan could experience legitimate democratic governance and rule by law.
Of course, if Musharraf takes extreme measures to maintain power in the face of sagging support, it could create a situation ripe for revolution. While Musharraf may no longer formally have the force of the military behind him, there is still reason to fear that he will illigitimately maintain the reigns of power. The prospect of anything other than a peaceful democratic transition is disconcerting to say the least.
Not alot seems to be openly known about the Pakistani command and control systems for nuclear weapons. Under the current government, Musharraf, with the advice of a civilian National Security Council and a military Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, would likely exercise decision making. However, it is unclear what would happen under a successor government. Hopefully, the move would be towards a system in which it would be more difficult, rather than less difficult, to employ nuclear arms.
Speculation has been offered that the Pakistani nuclear weapons may not have Permissive Action Link (PAL) technology that would make them exceedingly difficult to use should they fall into the wrong hands. US leaders have, in the past, discussed the topic of sharing PAL technologies with other countries, but have always decided against it based on the belief that it would be a national security risk. PALs require that weapons be armed only by those with proper authorization codes under threat of having the high explosive detonate on the individual attempting to arm the device in a manner that does not create a chain reaction.
Here’s to a peaceful change of regime in Pakistan in the new year.
