There have been a number of stories in the news lately concerning attempts by the Russians to bolster their strategic nuclear capabilities. One such story involves plans to construct a number of new Topol-M model missiles, and  the other is the commissioning of a new class of Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) to replace the RS-20 with a missile of enhanced performance. These activities, and others that reenact the Cold War arms race dynamic, are reportedly a response to the US development of missile defense systems – most notably the system whose components will be installed in Poland and the Czech Republic.

The question of interest is whether any benefit to be gained by developing this defensive system off-sets the renewed interest in strategic arms build-up. The Bush Administration has been adamant that such a limited system, with only a few interceptors, could not possibly influence the calculus of deterence between the US and Russia - both of whom have large arsenals. However, this argument has not had the slightest bit of effect in restraining Russian behavior. Either this is because the Russians have other reasons for their behavior and want a convenient excuse, or they have a reason to think that either their arsenal is not nearly so robust in its ability to overwhelm the US system as we think or that ultimately the system will be expanded to the point that it will become a threat.

Part of what makes this such a difficult question is that there is no consensus about how effective the proposed systems can be made to be. Therefore, even if one believes that neutralizing the Iranian and North Korean threat is worth an arms race with Russia, one may not conclude that missile defenses should be pursued. There are those who think that mid-course and terminal phase missile defense systems are a pipe-dream both because by the time high confidence is developed in the ability to hit such fast moving targets they (i.e. ballistic (non-steerable) missiles) will be obsolete and, in the meantime, decoys and countermeasures can outpace improvements in missile defense accuracy. Certainly, the history of missile defense has not lent a great deal of confidence in these types of systems.